2021 British Open odds: Open Championship picks, predictions from advanced model that nailed Jon Rahm’s win

The 2021 Open Championship will begin on Thursday, July 15 at Royal St. George’s in Sandwich, England. After the Open Championship wasn’t contested in 2020 because of the coronavirus pandemic, Shane Lowry is still the defending champion. The Irishman had a raucous following at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland on his way to a six-shot victory. While he hasn’t managed a victory since, he has been playing excellent golf, with top-10 finishes in four of his last nine worldwide starts.

Lowry is listed as a 40-1 long shot in the latest 2021 Open Championship odds from William Hill Sportsbook, and there are 15 golfers in the Open Championship 2021 field with shorter odds. That includes past major champions like Jordan Spieth (18-1), Brooks Koepka (14-1), Rory McIlroy (11-1) and Jon Rahm (9-1), the current favorite coming off his impressive U.S. Open victory. Before locking in your 2021 Open Championship picks, be sure to see the latest golf predictions and projected leaderboard from the proven computer model at SportsLine.

SportsLine’s proprietary model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has been red-hot since the PGA Tour resumed last June. In fact, it’s up over $9,000 on its best bets since the restart, nailing tournament after tournament.

At the 2021 U.S. Open, McClure’s model was all over Jon Rahm’s first career major championship victory at 10-1 from the start. Rahm was two strokes off the lead heading into the weekend, but the model still projected him as the winner at that point. The result: Rahm birdied the 17th and 18th holes in dramatic fashion to send his backers straight to the pay window. At the 2021 Masters, McClure nailed Rahm’s (+250) top-five finish in his best bets, as well as Corey Conners’ (+550) top-10 showing. McClure’s best bets netted over $450 at the Masters.

In addition, McClure was all over Daniel Berger’s win at +1400 in his best bets at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in February. McClure also nailed Viktor Hovland’s (+2500) victory in the Mayakoba Golf Classic in December. That was one of many huge calls he’s made in the past several months.

This same model has also nailed a whopping seven majors entering the weekend. Anyone who has followed it has seen massive returns

Now that the 2021 Open Championship field is taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times, and the results were surprising. Head to SportsLine now to see the projected 2021 Open Championship leaderboard and Open Championship 2021 expert picks.

The model’s top 2021 Open Championship predictions 

One major surprise the model is calling for at the Open Championship 2021: Bryson DeChambeau, a major champion and one of the top favorites, struggles mightily doesn’t even crack the top 10. DeChambeau has been one of the hottest players on tour this season, finishing on top of the leaderboard at the 2020 U.S. Open and Arnold Palmer Invitational.

The eight-time PGA Tour champion continues to crush the ball off the tee, averaging over 320 yards per drive, which ranks first on tour. DeChambeau’s length off the tee also has him ranked in the top 15 in birdie average, scoring average and strokes gained tee-to-green.

However, DeChambeau is hitting fewer than 55 percent of fairways off the tee this season, which can cause plenty of trouble at a major championship. His inability to find the fairway off the tee has resulted in DeChambeau finishing outside the top 25 in five of his last seven starts. He’s not a strong pick to win it all and there are far better values in the 2021 Open Championship field.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a much better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The former world No. 1 won the 2017 PGA Championship and has collected an impressive 14 PGA Tour wins during his career at just 28 years old.

Thomas won the Players Championship in March during a week in which his tee-to-green game was well-rounded. Thomas ranked in the top 12 in the field that week in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained on approach and strokes gained around the green on his way to a one-shot victory over Lee Westwood. If he can replicate that performance, the No. 3 player in the Official World Golf Ranking could be a serious factor at Royal St. George’s at a bargain-bin price.

How to make 2021 Open Championship picks

The model is also targeting five other golfers with 2021 Open Championship odds of 20-1 or higher make a surprising run, including include two massive long shots higher than 35-1 that would net any bettor an epic payday. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big. You can only see them here.

So who will win the Open Championship 2021? And which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine to see the projected 2021 Open Championship leaderboard, all from the model that’s nailed seven golf majors, including Jon Rahm’s epic U.S. Open victory.

2021 Open Championship odds

Jon Rahm 9-1
Rory McIlroy 11-1
Dustin Johnson 12-1
Bryson DeChambeau 14-1
Brooks Koepka 14-1
Jordan Spieth 18-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Xander Schauffele 20-1
Tommy Fleetwood 28-1 
Louis Oosthuizen 28-1
Tyrrell Hatton 28-1
Patrick Cantlay 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
Adam Scott 33-1
Justin Rose 33-1
Shane Lowry 40-1
Viktor Hovland 40-1
Paul Casey 40-1
Webb Simpson 40-1
Patrick Reed 40-1
Tony Finau 40-1
Collin Morikawa 40-1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 45-1
Daniel Berger 50-1
Sergio Garcia 50-1
Scottie Scheffler 50-1
Garrick Higgo 50-1
Lee Westwood 50-1
Phil Mickelson 50-1
Will Zalatoris 50-1
Rickie Fowler 50-1
Jason Day 50-1
Cameron Smith 60-1
Joaquin Niemann 66-1
Matt Kuchar 66-1
Sam Burns 66-1
Marc Leishman 66-1
Francesco Molinari 66-1
Henrik Stenson 66-1
Harris English 66-1
Sung-Jae Im 66-1
Robert MacIntyre 66-1
Branden Grace 70-1
Matthew Wolff 80-1
Danny Willett 80-1
Christiaan Bezuidenhout 80-1
Abraham Ancer 80-1
Gary Woodland 80-1
Victor Perez 100-1
Rafa Cabrera Bello 100-1
Alex Noren 100-1
Graeme McDowell 100-1
Ian Poulter 100-1
Matt Wallace 100-1
Max Homa 100-1
Martin Kaymer 100-1
Bubba Watson 125-1
Tom Lewis 125-1
Brandt Snedeker 125-1
Corey Conners 125-1
Eddie Pepperell 125-1
Stewart Cink 125-1
Bernd Wiesberger 125-1
Hao-Tong Li 125-1
Jason Kokrak 125-1
Thomas Pieters 125-1
Matthias Schwab 150-1
Billy Horschel 150-1
Zach Johnson 150-1
Charl Schwartzel 150-1
Thorbjorn Olesen 150-1
Andy Sullivan 150-1
Kevin Na 150-1
Si-Woo Kim 150-1
Padraig Harrington 150-1
Kevin Kisner 150-1
Byeong-Hun An 150-1
Erik van Rooyen 150-1
Matt Jones 150-1
Mike Lorenzo-Vera 200-1
Brian Harman 200-1
Emiliano Grillo 200-1
Aaron Rai 200-1
Marcus Armitage 200-1
Andrew Johnston 200-1
Charley Hoffman 200-1
Russell Knox 200-1
Keegan Bradley 200-1
Joost Luiten 200-1
Dylan Frittelli 200-1
Ryan Palmer 200-1
Cameron Champ 200-1
Sebastian Munoz 200-1
Andrew Putnam 225-1
Kurt Kitayama 250-1
Chez Reavie 250-1
Jim Furyk 250-1
Jason Dufner 250-1
Sung-Hoon Kang 250-1
Jazz Janewattananond 250-1
Scott Piercy 250-1
Lucas Bjerregaard 250-1
Ryan Moore 250-1
Jimmy Walker 250-1
Charles Howell 250-1
Adam Hadwin 250-1
Joel Dahmen 250-1
Lucas Glover 250-1
Matthew Southgate 250-1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 250-1
Paul Waring 250-1
Benjamin Hebert 250-1
Aaron Wise 250-1
Ryan Fox 250-1
Jorge Campillo 250-1
Keith Mitchell 250-1
Romain Langasque 250-1
Justin Harding 250-1
Luke List 250-1
J.B. Holmes 250-1
Marcus Kinhult 250-1
Rory Sabbatini 250-1
C.T. Pan 300-1
Takumi Kanaya 300-1
Danny Lee 300-1
Shaun Norris 300-1
Shugo Imahira 300-1
Ernie Els 500-1
Darren Clarke 500-1
Bernhard Langer 500-1
Paul Lawrie 500-1
John Daly 1000-1
Jaco Ahlers 1000-1
David Duval 1500-1
Mark Calcavecchia 2000-1
Todd Hamilton 2000-1

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